CHL.ca Photo
By Scott Lowe - MYHockeyRanking.com
For obvious reasons, the 2021 World Junior Championships will be a tournament like no other we’ve ever seen as COVID-19 leaves its fingerprints on yet one more major sporting event before we thankfully exit what has been a long and challenging 2020.
As the tournament gets underway on Christmas Day at 2 p.m. Eastern time at Rogers Place in Edmonton, so much will be different.
Like we saw with the National Hockey League over the summer, all participating teams will be housed in a “secure zone” or “bubble” that includes the arena, hotels and any team workout facilities. Teams, coaches, staff members and organizers also will be subject to frequent COVID testing and strict protocols. Those guidelines already have resulted in players being left home or quarantined, including three key members of the German team who didn’t make the trip and eight others who were in quarantine until Christmas Eve.
The stacked Canadian team, accustomed to playing in front of packed and raucous arenas when hosting the WJC, will not enjoy the massive energy boost and advantage its loyal fans provide. Likewise, the Americans won’t be playing in front of a packed barn rooting against them every time they take the ice.
For the players and coaches, the game atmosphere will feel more like a neutral-site pre-tournament exhibition or an afternoon game between two non-host teams than the buzz and energy we have come to expect from the WJC.
For hockey fans in the United States, one positive change that has resulted from all the games being played at one venue is that for the first time ever the NHL Network will be televising every game of the tournament live, beginning with today’s huge 2 p.m. matchup between Switzerland and Slovakia. As usual, all of the games will be televised live in Canada by TSN and RDS.
How could the first game of the tournament be so critical?
Well, those two teams are competing in Group A, which includes powerhouses Canada and Finland along with Germany. The Fins and Canadians won the last two tournaments, respectively, but over time it has been proven that the third seed coming out of pool play is the one with the best chance of pulling off an upset in the elimination round and advancing to medal contention. Assuming that Canada and Finland do their part, the race for that third seed in Group A will be heated and extremely important.
In Group B three elite teams – Russia, the United States and Sweden figure to battle for the top-three spots. Group B is rounded out by Czech Republic, which upset Russia in last year’s preliminary round, and Austria, which moved up from the relegation pool.
“There are three distinct classes of teams in this tournament,” said Dave Starman, who will be one of the voices of the U.S. games on NHL Network and has seen a dozen of these events. “In each pool you have two of what I like to call the big five – Canada, Finland, Russia, the U.S. and Sweden. One of those pools always has a third team from the big five. The thought process is who will be the team in the next group of that can potentially pull off the January 2 {quarterfinal} upset when you have the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds from each pool crossing over and playing each other. That’s where it can affect the balance of power, and it’s really fun to watch. If you go back and follow it through the history of the tournament, it has played out that way many times and to me is what provides the greatest intrigue.”
Over in Group B, many have favored the Russians – coached for the first time by NHL Hall of Famer Igor Larionov – over a U.S. team that has finished among the top three in four of the last five championships, earning the gold in 2017 and silver in 2019. Russia, on the other hand, has placed among the top three in nine of the past 10 WJCs but hasn’t won the title since 2011.
The Russians have what is believed to be the best goaltender in the tournament in 18-year-old Yaroslav Askarov. Askarov was selected 11th overall in the 2020 NHL draft by the Nashville Predators, the highest that any Russian netminder ever has been selected. He has been lights out for his SKA St. Petersburg KHL professional team, but only put up pedestrian numbers and was pulled twice at last year’s WJC in Czech Republic.
“The Russians are the most difficult team for me to figure out every year,” Starman said. “When they feel like playing, they are great, but when the snowball starts to build for the other side they don’t always respond.”
Starman thinks the move to Larionov, a longtime member of the Soviet Union’s Red Army team who eventually became a star in the NHL, will make a difference in how the Russians approach the tournament based on what he saw in their recent 1-0 exhibition loss to Canada.
“I got to watch a about a period and half of that game, and it was like, ‘My goodness, look what this team is doing,’” Starman said. “It was like watching the great Soviet teams of the past. Instead of grabbing the puck and just chipping it deep or attacking the line, they were delaying, dropping back and regrouping – being very patient and controlling the puck. We’ll have to see how that works out against the other more linear, fast teams, but it was fun to watch – like a throwback to the 80s but for the right reasons.”
We’ll get to find out how the Russians’ throwback style works against a top team right off the bat when they cap off an opening-day triple-header with a 9:30 p.m. EST tilt against the Americans. The second game of the first three pits Germany against Finland at 6 p.m.
Another slight change in this year’s schedule is a product of past tournament results and wasn’t impacted by COVID. The first-round matchups between traditional fierce rivals we have come to expect – like Canada vs. the U.S. on New Year’s Eve – will not happen until the elimination round this year. Bitter foes Finland and Sweden also find themselves in different groups.
In addition to the U.S.-Russia matchup, we still will get to see great preliminary-round matchups such as Canada vs. Finland, Sweden vs. the United States and Russia vs. Sweden as well as intense battles for that coveted Group A third seed among the Swiss, Slovakia and Germany. North American viewers also will be treated to U.S.-Canada double-headers Dec. 26, 29 and 31.
Like most years, Canada enters the tournament as the odds-on favorite. The Canadians rebounded and returned to the top of the medal stand last year after a disappointing 2019 showing that saw them finish outside the top three for the fourth time in eight years after a run of 19 straight tournaments earning a medal.
Despite losing Kirby Dach, who was on loan to the team from the Chicago Blackhawks after a solid rookie season and strong poststeason showing, to a wrist injury in the exhibition against Russia, the other 13 Canadian forwards are first-round NHL draft picks, even without having the top pick of the 2020 draft, Alexis Lafreniere, available to play. Canada has 19 of ESPN’s top 100 NHL prospects on its roster, but none of its three goaltenders cracked that list. Therein lies the team’s only question mark.
No other team possesses the type of depth, speed and skill that the Candians have, but as a whole the tournament probably has a greater depth of talent than any that has preceded it. The U.S. has eight players back from its 2020 group, including Boston College’s Spencer Knight, who figures to challenge Askarov for the WJC’s top-goaltending honors. Knight is one of nine Americans ranked among ESPN’s top 100 prospects.
Russia only has three players on ESPN’s list, but brings a big, fast and skilled team to Edmonton along with potential world-class goaltending. Sweden, which hasn’t lost a WJC preliminary-round game in 13 years, and Finland, which has won three championships in the last seven years, are very strong defensively and know how to win on the international stage. Sweden has five of ESPN’s top 100 NHL prospects, while the Fins have one.
Even Germany has two exciting potential NHL forwards in high Ottawa draft pick Tim Stuetzle and Buffalo selection Jason Peterka, both of whom put up strong offensive numbers at last year’s WJC. Switzerland continues to surge on the international hockey landscape and gave Finland a wakeup call last year with a 5-2 upset in the preliminary round, while Czech Republic pulled off a 4-3 upset of the Russians in the second game of that tournament.
One player with a lot resting on his shoulders who will be fun to watch is Marco Rossi of Austria. Rossi was selected ninth in the 2020 NHL draft by Minnesota.
“There’s no question that even the teams that are considered to be just okay outside of the big five have some depth, too,” Starman said.
Given the level of talent and the unusual atmosphere expected at the 2021 WJC, there is a pretty good chance that in the Year of COVID it will take more than just talent to walk away with the gold medal.
“It’s a different dynamic; we just saw that with the NCHC {college} Pod,” Starman said. “Usually when the Canadians host, they literally have the support of everyone in the country from coast to coast. It’s one of the most unique things I’ve ever seen. Canada is going to have to find a way to generate its own emotion with no fans, and to some extent the U.S. will, too, since they won’t have everyone in the building rooting against them every night. This is going to be a little bit different. Finding ways to generate emotion from within might be the biggest challenge for the coaches in this tournament.”
The full tournament schedule can be found below, but first here is a look at some of the preliminary-round games to watch:
All times EST; Games can be seen on NHL Network in the U.S. and on TSN and RDS in Canada):
Friday, December 25
2 p.m. – Switzerland vs. Slovakia
9:30 p.m. – Russia vs. USA
Saturday, December 26
2 p.m. – Sweden vs. Czech Republic
6 p.m. – Canada vs. Germany
Sunday, December 27
2 p.m. – Switzerland vs. Finland
Monday, December 28
6 p.m. – Slovakia vs. Germany
Tuesday, December 29
2 p.m. – USA vs. Czech Republic
6 p.m. – Canada vs. Switzerland
Wednesday, December 30
6 p.m. – Switzerland vs. Germany
9:30 p.m. – Russia vs. Sweden
Thursday, Dec. 31
6 p.m. – Canada vs. Finland
9:30 p.m. – Sweden vs. USA
Complete Tournament Schedule
Fri, Dec 25
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Switzerland vs.
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Slovakia
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2:00 PM
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Fri, Dec 25
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Germany
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Finland
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6:00 PM
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Fri, Dec 25
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Russia
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USA
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9:30 PM
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Sat, Dec 26
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Sweden
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Czech Republic
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2:00 PM
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Sat, Dec 26
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Germany
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Canada
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6:00 PM
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Sat, Dec 26
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USA
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Austria
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9:30 PM
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Sun, Dec 27
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Finland
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Switzerland
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2:00 PM
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Sun, Dec 27
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Slovakia
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Canada
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6:00 PM
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Sun, Dec 27
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Czech Republic
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Russia
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9:30 PM
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Mon, Dec 28
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Austria
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Sweden
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6:00 PM
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Mon, Dec 28
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Slovakia
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Germany
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9:30 PM
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Tues, Dec 29
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USA
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Czech Republic
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2:00 PM
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Tues, Dec 29
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Canada
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Switzerland
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6:00 PM
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Tues, Dec 29
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Austria
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Russia
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9:30 PM
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Wed, Dec 30
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Finland
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Slovakia
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2:00 PM
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Wed, Dec 30
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Switzerland
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Germany
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6:00 PM
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Wed, Dec 30
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Russia
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Sweden
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9:30 PM
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Thurs, Dec 31
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Czech Republic
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Austria
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2:00 PM
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Thurs, Dec 31
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Canada
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Finland
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6:00 PM
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Thurs, Dec 31
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Sweden
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USA
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9:30 PM
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Sat, Jan 2
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Quarterfinal
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TBD
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12:00 PM
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Sat, Jan 2
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Quarterfinal
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TBD
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3:30 PM
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Sat, Jan 2
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Quarterfinal
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TBD
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7:00 PM
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Sat, Jan 2
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Quarterfinal
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TBD
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10:30 PM
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Mon, Jan 4
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Semifinal
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TBD
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6:00 PM
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Mon, Jan 4
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Semifinal
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TBD
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9:30 PM
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Tues, Jan 5
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Bronze Medal
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TBD
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5:30 PM
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Tues, Jan 5
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Gold Medal
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TBD
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9:30 PM
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