This column has taken me over a month to write. While I computed most of the data over a month ago, I did not feel comfortable with everything. Something told me that I did not have the entire picture. I am still concerned that I do not yet have all relevant data points, but it is time.

Around NHL Draft time, everyone seems to be touting or cursing their local area's ability to produce NHL quality players. As some of you know and others have suspected, I have a college Math degree. Once in a blue moon, I put it to good use. I personally feel the numbers I have put together are the most rigorously accurate I have seen on the subject. I am sure others have looked at these numbers in a similarly thorough way, I just have yet to see it published anywhere I frequent on the internet. If you have seen something similar, drop me a note with a link so that I can check them out.

First, let me start with some background. Is it fair to compare Massachusetts youth hockey to Washington (state) youth hockey? Of course not, Mass has five or ten times more kids playing the sport. So, it goes to reason that we need to compare relatively equal sized regions and/or compare regions of the country with figures that are computed per youth player. I started looking at USA Hockey regions (there are 11 of them), but soon noticed some fairly large difference in numbers. I found my numbers in the USA Hockey 2006-07 Annual Guide. Most of the figures quoted come from Pages 9 & 10. While USA Hockey does not specifically report the number of male youth players per region, they give enough information to compute these numbers. The numbers show that the Minnkota Region has over 38k boys playing youth hockey while the Pacific Region only slightly more than 13k. What I cannot guarantee is that these numbers are based upon accurate data (I interpretted USA Hockey numbers which I did not verify) or that the numbers include all youth hockey players from a specific region. Could the Pacific Region really have more adults registered with USA Hockey than youth? I know for a fact that in most parts of the country men's leagues do not register with USA Hockey, but maybe they all do in the Pacific Region and these numbers are accurate, I just cannot tell for sure. However, using a couple assumptions, each of the 11 USA Hockey regions was compared per boys youth player.

Before the numbers and the results, let me also point out a limitation to these statistics. They are not accurate to the individual level. Many players are born in one location and learn to play hockey somewhere else. I am fairly certain that Robyn Regher of the Calgary Flames did not learn to play hockey in Brazil (his birth place) any more than Owen Nolen developed in Ireland or Richard Park in Korea or Olaf Kolzig in South Africa. Yet, these are their birthplaces. This is the same information I have. Going a step further, who says one location was responsible for developing these individuals. Families move. Kids go from club to club, often times from one USA Hockey district to the next. I am simply looking at birthplace with its inherent limitations.

All that said, the math shows that Minnkota is the best district at producing NHL draft picks and players. Draft picks and players! I analyzed both the NHL draft years of 2005-2007 and NHL players who played in the NHL during the 2006-07 regular season. Minnkota also lead in shear number of players, with 47 draft picks (Michigan was second with 26) and 33 players (Michigan and Massachusetts tied with 27 each). Analyzing current NHL players demonstrates what has proven effective. Analyzing draft picks only demonstrates what NHL scouts currently think about a crop of 18 year old kids. In fact, analyzing the draft actually post dates real development by up to ten years. So, the current draft is not a predictor of the future. My own analysis says that the Southeastern District, for years a laggard in hockey development circles, will do rather well during the 2012-2020. Why, because there have been some very competitive NHL teams, including two Stanley Cup champions from the district during the past five years. Stanley Cup championships helps produce NHL players. Furthermore, I have seen the newest crop of Festival kids being developed in the Southeastern District and they are very solid.

What does all this mean? I am honestly not 100% sure. I think it does indicate that Minnesota is doing many things right as it comes to the development of youth hockey players. It also seems to be telling me that Massachusetts is lagging behind. They were 9th (of 11) in the draft picks per youth player chart and 5th in NHLers per youth player chart. That either tells me that they are losing ground or they are losing the respect of NHL scouts, or both. If we analyze the difference between the two states, we see that Massachusetts is awash in AAA hockey clubs and leagues, and Minnesota does not have any fall/winter AAA hockey. States like Michigan and Illinois, have only a few select AAA teams and a solid number of AA clubs regularly developing kids for the few AAA clubs and appear to be developing a middle of the pack number of players.

I have shared some of my thoughts, but I will let each of you draw your own conclusions. There are other factors and desired outcomes that one could look at instead of NHL draft picks/players like the number of D1 scholarships or the highest retention rate through age 18. My numbers do not tell everything and like all statistics, can be manipulated to say whatever you want them to say, but I have drawn my own conclusions and thought I would provide you with some numbers to assist you in coming to your own set of conclusions. You can download a subset of my analysis by clicking HERE.